At the hand we shook hands and he said that for him it was interesting to see that his views and mine where very much the same although we where from very different backgrounds. I agreed and this gives me hope. Hope that many people in Venezuela share my views

How bizarre can it get. He furthermore explained why he is getting therapy in Cuba and I quote  ”that’s where the detection occurred and everything is there, all the equipment, the medical team and very specialized facilities.”
Aha, there you have it. The socialist leader acknowledged once again the the medical system he is responsible for can not provide him with medical care. Weird and again nobody seems to care..

If you are doing business in Venezuela nowadays you need to do business with the government, no matter what. And doing business in Venezuela is though, that’s for sure. And there is always some form of corruption involved. Even the common man faces a lot of corruption. If you need to get a document from some official institute for doing something , you are always better of to shove some money under the table. It is the way of life in Venezuela. To name some practices:

If you a high ranking officer in the army, you have access to cheap loans. So what do they do? They take out as many loans as they can and re-lend the money for a higher interest rate. The difference in interest rates make it a very profitable business. Do I blame these people? No of course not. It is the system itself that is corrupt, they just use it for their own benefit like everyone would do. Hey, they even provide funding for starting a business in Venezuela. Something you will not be able to do if you go to the bank to apply for a loan.

A lot of people I know buy dollars or euros on the black market. You might think that they are in somekind of shady business but they are not. They need foreign currency to import goods. And these goods you can find everywhere in Venezuela as we are producing next to nothing. It is the system that makes them do so and it is the system that is corrupt. They are not the ones to blame for the pricing of the products, it is the system.

And then there are the people living abroad. A lot of you are visiting your relatives for Christmas each year. But we all know how you obtain your ticket. You are buying a reverse ticket in Venezuela with bolivars you have obtained on the black market by selling your dollars. So you pay at least 30% less for a ticket to Venezuela. Guess who funds the 30%? That’s right it is Venezuela.. Do I blame you? Of course not. The system is corrupt and you are just using it for your own benefit as everyone else would do.

So is it the companies and the people or is it the system which is created by the current government? I think that it is the system. We are just what we are and yes I fly business class..

Scenario 1
The evil scenario.  Chavez will still be alive and kicking for the elections in 2012. But because of his incapacity to rule he will be defeated by the opposition during the election. The people will be excited as they think it will be the end of an era and that with this victory will be the beginning of a bright future.
Unfortunately this feeling will be short lived as it will take a lot of time to “count the votes”. In the mean time, Chavez will mobilize his “malandro’s” to organize some riots. These riots will be shown on TV with a message that the country is in uproar and that the military needs to intervene.
As you might know, Chavez is has got 4 stars on his shoulder and he is the general of the army. He will declare a state of emergency and this will leave the military in charge. As he is general he will be in the number 1 position again and he will have the constitution behind him. By law he can rule the country for as long as he pleases and in what way he pleases. In some Arab countries, the state of emergency is going on for years and has kept their rulers in place for years. The country will enter the dark ages if this would happen.

Scenario 2
Chavez will be alive and kicking for the presidential elections and will have the capacity to rule. If this would be the case, the outcome of the elections would be clear before the election even started. Like Rosales and Lopez, every opposition leader will be prosecuted  for corruption or for something else. They will be banned from the elections and the opposition will not have any charismatic person to vote for. Also there will be a power struggle within the opposition itself. So Chavez will win. Not by much but he will be elected again and this time it will be for infinity. The country will enter the dark ages as it will be turned into a communist state. And nobody will know for how long.

Scenario 3
Chavez is in good health but will loose the elections. This would be a very good scenario you would think. I think not.. The country is in shambles right now. Every trick in the book is used to disguise this. So when the opposition wins they will be left with the heritage of the decade of Chavez. The problem is that the opposition is promising a brighter future. “He vote for us and everything will get better..”.  No it will not because there are no funds to make this happen. So the hopes for a brighter future will quickly demise. It would take years to get the finances, policies etc in order again. Because of this is the people will find themselves doing worse than in the Chavez era. They will vote for Chavez again in every election that follows. It would be a short term victory.

Scenario 4
Chavez will not be able to run. This would could be  a good  scenario. Chavez has made his party in such a way that he is the glue that keeps things together. He will try to push his brother forward to run for president. If he succeeds and the current top officials would accept him as their leader the elections would be quite exciting to say the least. The first public appearances of his brother will not be that good be you can count on it that they will hire the best trainers, communication experts and so on to make him look good.  He could even win because the opposition does not have the candidates that are charismatic enough. People would think twice on who to vote for. The outcome would be uncertain.

Scenario 5
This is the scenario that everyone is hoping for. Chavez might be in good enough health but he will not be able to keep his party together anymore. There will be trouble from within. As the opposition does have a good candidate, let it be Capriles, Lopez or Ledezma  they will win the election with ease. After the elections the extent of the corruption of a decade of Chavez will be revealed to the public. Top officials and even Chavez himself will be prosecuted. The opposition will send out the message that they are makeing changes but that it will take time before the country will be in a better shape. If this would be the case, the future of Venezuela looks bright again.
Just take a look what happened in Colombia over the last decade. Life has improved so much there that now it is a better place to live than Venezuela.

As you can see these scenarios contain a lot of “if’s” and “then’s”. As we are approaching 2012 the opposition does not have to much time on their hands. I can understand that they are careful in who they should push forward, because if they do it to early, Chavez will make sure that this candidate will not run. But on the other hand, they cannot wait to long. I also feel that there is a lot of division between the parties of the opposition. It is okay to have differences as long as they are not fought out via the media.
Furthermore I feel  that the message that the opposition sends out should be carefully crafted. Do not make false promises, do not say “everything will get better” because it will not, focus on the current corrupt system, fight Chavez with his own weapons to say stuff like “Why do you blame the bourgeoisie as you yourself are one of them by getting a luxury treatment in Cuba”, try to speak about the economy in simple terms and try to explain to the people why it is really bad to issue bonds with a coupon value of 11 percent, try to explain that a country needs to think about the future, that there are generations to follow. etc..

If you have other scenarios, please feel free to comment

I hope you have the means to profit from this bond. Get your money out of Venezuela while you can, and if you keep foreign reserves, you might want to take a look at the Swiss Franc or the Singapore Dollar. These currencies seem to be the least effected by the current global crisis and will make sure that you sleep well at night.

Basically the new law regulates all prices. So if you have a privately operated business, you will be affected heavily. If you think that not having milk, coffee and electricity was bad, just wait until this law passes. There will be a shortage of everything, privately held companies will go bankrupt and in the end, everything will be state owned.  Don’t be fooled in thinking that this law will help to bring prices down, instead of bringing down pricing it will make sure that every shelve in the supermarket will be empty. It is a communist law which does not benefit  anyone except the government.

Why? Well, the effect of this law will be that, in the end, it will erase what was left of the difference between a state owned and a privately owned firm.
This means more power to the government and this will mean that there will be no funding left for the opposition.

It seems like Chavez and his henchmen are putting everything to work to keep in power after 2012. Huele a azufre!

As we all know, Venezuela is getting less and less democratic and more and more corrupt. If you ever read about history you might want to look at the “Guerra Sucia” in Argentina. You can read about it here: Wiki.
What surprises me that the time leading to this black part Argentinian history, is quite similar to what is happening in Venezuela right now. The current government brought some stability at first. They built numerous public works. But after quite a short time they corrupted. They are using the country’s economy and democracy for their own gain. Exactly the same as happened in Argentina but in Argentina the government was at least honest enough to say that where dictators..

I hope from the bottom of my heart, that a monument like this will never be placed in Venezuela.

Chavez always brags about his socialist revolution. He talks about this for hours on “Nationalized TV” and there are still quite a lot of people who believe his words. He always blames everything that is wrong with the country on the bourgeoisie, trying to divide “el pueblo” and trying to get support from the lower classes. He does a good job in doing so unfortunately.

But now he is diagnosed with cancer and he sends a different message to “el pueblo” by getting treated in Cuba. The message is as follows: The healthcare system in Venezuela is very bad. Getting treated in a Venezuelan Hospital for any kind of illness is the same thing as committing suicide. Even though I have been president of this country for over a decade, I failed to improve the healthcare..

As we all know, healthcare is very bad in Venezuela. You hear all kinds of horror stories about getting treated in a Venezuelan hospital. To give an example: A friend who lives in Caracas wanted to visit a family member who was in the hospital. When She got there, some evil looking people where standing in front of the elevator. As she tried to pass them, but when she was denied entrance to the elevator and she only could use it if she paid the “Malandro’s” quite a lot of cash.. Think about the quality of the medical treatments if stuff like this can happen in the corridor..

Still “el pueblo” does not have any other options for medical treatment. So how is it possible that when the guy who is responsible for this mess get sick, he can have treatment elsewhere? I think this is really odd to say the least. I mean, this guy is the president and when he is not confident with the healthcare of his own country he can have the best doctors to be flown in, including the best medicines available.

But no, he was doubting to fly to Brazil or Cuba for further treatment and in the end he has chosen Cuba.. And then has the guts to go on national TV and say that his socialist revolution is going strong and that he is there for his country. I think that Venezuela is the only country where this is possible. It is almost funny when you think of it.

Of course. The guy has his reasons and they have nothing to do with healthcare. Some of you would say that this is a PR stunt, but this does not fly if you look at the whole picture. First he has trouble with his knee, then it is some kind of infection. Then he says he does not have cancer but says the word “Malignant” in one his speeches. Sorry but the guy did not know the word existed if nobody told him so. And now he has got cancer but fails to say what kind of cancer he has and in what stage he is in. If this would be a PR stunt it would be one of the worst one since Coca-Cola changed the recipe of Coca-Cola.

He is ill, very ill. But nobody, besides the ones that are close to him, actually knows how severe it is. And it looks like he is terrified that anyone else will find out. This is probably also the only reason why he gets treatment in Cuba. In Cuba he can control everything what is being said and done. Because of the strict media regulations he can have piece of mind that the severeness of his illness will be a very well kept secret. For me this is the only reason why Chavez is receiving treatment abroad and it makes sense. Think of what would happen if “el pueblo” would find out that Chavez would not be capable anymore to rule their country. It would be a disaster and it would be the end of the Chavez era..