Jueputa enfermedad

Weird times. I follow most Venezuelan blogs and most are talking politics and the ‘post Chavez era’ like the man already passed away. Talking about the future and not talking about whats going on right now.

I was informed by dutch media that the recovery of Chavez does not go that well. I thought he was doing better than he actually does. Cancer is, in my opinion, one of the worst diseases out there. It is slow but deadly. It is though, not only on the patient but also on the family. 

The weird thing is that most blogs are not writing about this. He is the man who has a lot of support in his country and that is something that a lot of journalists just don’t want to see. They portrait him as an evil dictator who is throwing people from planes. They disregard the human tragedy which comes with this disease and think that is just wrong. Chavez and his family are going through hell right now.

Maybe it is time for some of you to show the man some sympathy, even if you do not agree with what he is doing or saying. 

Speculation…

I am getting sick and tired of all the speculation regarding the health of the president. I got nauseous from reading the news and blogs the last couple of days. How can self proclaimed ‘intellectuals’ write someones obituary when that someone is still alive?! Even ‘quality’ newspapers contributed their fair share.

Fact is that the president is still alive and doing quite well if you look at the video. Thank god I would say. I think ‘el comanadante’ just pulled quite a nice stunt. Let the oppo show it’s true colors just by keeping silent.. And, of course, they fell for it.. Guess who will win the 16th..

Quite a nice post by Alek Boyd.

Alek boyd posted this on his blog.

Good thing about being a blogger obsessed by any given topic, is that one can go back and revisit what has -in all likelihood- being said previously. In the past few months, I received scolding critiques from friends, family, fellow bloggers and readers alike for my “pessimistic outlook”. When I wrote about how futile the whole enterprise of voting would be, even my apolitical wife gave me a bollocking, which resulted inconditioning my stance. When one’s opinions run counter to group think’s beliefs, ostracism often happens, but that’s fine, I’m more than used to that.

My parents in law spent recently a good while here in London with us, which gave me plenty of opportunity to pick their minds about the situation “back in ground zero.” That, and copious reading of fellow bloggers posting, did not change my outlook, for I kept thinking thatCapriles stood no chance. As usual, much was made about Capriles’s campaign, poll results and rallies. To someone who lived campaign, polls and rallies daily for nearly 90 days back in 2006, and who was surprised to have been trounced at the polls, I was not going to fool myself again with “casa por casa”, pictures of rallies, hundreds of thousands of people notwithstanding, or sterile debates about pollsters.

What followed to that short period was a revisit to the issue of electoral fraud, an impossible-to-miss elephant in our Venezuelan room. And so I managed to establish a communication with Roberto Picon, one of the big wigs of Capriles’s campaign, alas, despite some extremely worrying admissions to the effect of vote rigging, the brief exchange ended without much clarity as to how exactly was the opposition going to tackle electoral issues this time round.

What did, somewhat, change my perception was one the last campaign speeches of Capriles. I felt identified with his discourse, though remain skeptical about his chances.

Well, the map above leaves no room for much doubt. Hugo Chavez trounced the opposition candidate again. Six years on, Chavez still is the choice of the majority of my countrymen. And that’s OK, I don’t have a problem with that. The good thing about it is that Henrique Capriles, Leopoldo Lopez, Ramon Guillermo Aveledo et al buried the phantom of electoral fraud in Venezuela. By claiming, repeatedly, that the system had been sufficiently audited, and that the opposition had managed to place witnesses in 100% of voting centres nationwide, there is no room for further entertaining the thought of fraud. As of this writing, no one will be able to seriously question results anywhere, for, according to Lopez, we had all polling stations covered. In Zulia, traditionally an opposition bastion, Chavez trounced Capriles. In Lara, with Henri Falcon, Virgen de la Divina Pastora and all, Chavez managed to beat Capriles. In Caracas, Leopoldo’s, MUD’s, and Capriles’s HQ, Chavez also got the better of the opposition. Mind you, despite obtaining 6,151,544 votes the opposition did worse nationwide, managing to win only 3 states. Ergo our electoral map looks redder than ever.

Again, I want to reiterate that unlike most people in the opposition this morning, my fellow bloggers included, I don’t have a problem with that. I am not depressed, sad, or entertaining never to write about my country again. For I never expected a different outcome. Yesterday, the evening had started with a meal with friends and family at home, and when we saw Chavez speaking and answering questions after having voted, I told them, “well, there are two messages in there: first polling stations may not close at 6pm, and second Chavez is going to walk with this thing.” My wife woke me in the middle of the night to say “ganó Chavez”. My reply was “I know”. Few minutes later I tweeted “Uh, ah…”

And somebody made money on the elections

When the Venezuelan Electoral Council announced that with 90% of the votes counted that Hugo Chaves won the elections, somebody made a killing on Intrade.

During the election, the Chavez reelection contract, which after trading in the 80s range (indicating an 80% probability of reelection), dipped to the low 20s, following speculation Chavez may be on the way out, only to soar to 99.9 as of the last trade.

In other words, somebody made 5x their money on the Chavez vote in minutes, money which has most likely been well spent on Cuban Cohibas by now.

‘Fraudeeee!!’ Protesting kids in Altamira

This is what happens when quite some people are saying ‘fraude’ on facebook and twitter. Some stupid kids in Altamira are protesting and shouting ‘fraudeeeee!!’. Just when somebody is trying to build a bridge some ignorant move burns it immediately. Well isn’t this just great..

I think I will call it day.. sigh

Commitment math and a phone call..

I am getting really tired of all the facebook updates right now. I get it that losing is hard but shouting ‘fraude’ and proving it with a math equation that a seven year old could do better is not the best thing to do. Black flags with ‘hasta quando’ is not either.

Yes, people got financial support, and every trick in the book was used. But besides that, a lot of supporters showed commitment. Waking up early and getting their neighbours to vote, their cousins, their family. They showed a lot of us what real support for a candidate consist of.

The opposition did a good job, but there is still a lot of work to be done. For instance I know people who always shout how bad Chavez is for the country and who did not even vote.. Also the tricks used by the chavista’s could also be used by the opposition. A large part of the opposition is financially well of, so why not contribute financially to your candidate? A lot of well of chavista’s did.

I think Capriles knows there are bridges that need to be build. He is doing a great job. I was surprised about the phone call between the two camps. Good to see some de-polarization, and kuddo’s to Capriles. I do not know a lot of people who can react like this after being called a faggot.. I do not know what is going to happen in the near future, but it should be interesting to say the least. And no, it is not the end of the world, it is already 14 years like this.

The day after

Because I live abroad I could not follow the election until the end result. So this morning I woke up anxious to find out what the end result of the election would be. I was convinced that ‘El Flaco’ would win. Like many of you, I was shocked to find out what the result was. How could it be that Chavez won again? How is it possible that a government that mismanages a country so badly got reelected?
It was time to do research and reflection. I wanted to know why I got it so wrong. I concluded that I was being a dwarf standing on the shoulders of giants. ‘nani gigantum humeris insidentes’. And that I did not understand history to much and that my perception of what was good for the country was quite blurred. I heard the tones but I did not hear the message.

A large part of my perception is based on the people I talk to. These are my Venezuelan family, friends and acquaintances. Some live in Venezuela and some live abroad. They all have in common that they a relatively well off. Nobody in this group of people is poor and most of them are well educated. And because of this, we are all wearing pink glasses. One of tones I heard which pointed this out was a comment by a Chavista which stated that the opposition could only win when somebody from the ‘barrio’ could also comment while using his powerbook..

There are a lot of people in Venezuela who live beneath the poverty line. And 14 years ago, things were even worse. Something like arriving at a hospital in desperate need of medical attention only to find out that the doors were closed was very common. Being poor meant that you could not have hopes and dreams and nobody in the government acknowledged this. Poor people where a nuisance to them.

In that era Chavez came into play. His message was giving hope for the poor. After much suffering, someone finally stood up for them, someone who would not betray them. The rest is history. These people are the people who put Chavez next to Jesus, who almost turn violent when you start a discussion about politics with them. And to be honest, they have all the reason to do so. I remember years ago sitting in a plane next to highly educated Venezuelan who said to me. ‘Yes, I had all the opportunities and I did well, but now it is time for the poor’.

You can criticize Chavez all you want but he knows very well who his supporters are and he knows how to keep them on his side. Capriles tried to build bridges but as we can see, he was unsuccessful in doing so. His message was hard to swallow for someone who remembered how it was 14 years ago. He is somebody from the upper-class, and although he tried, he will never be able to connect to this group. Why? He has history and upbringing against him. His leftist message did not sound true to a large part of the population. To them he still is someone from the bourgeoisie and their track record is not all that..

You can see that the opposition still is paying the price of all the damage they have done in the past. You can say that Chavez is bad for the country, but just do not forget how his predecessors where. Do not forget how bad the opposition looked in 2002 and what this meant for the ones who just had gotten a little hope. This is the main reason why Capriles lost yesterday.

Yes, Chavez used every trick in the book, but he won. And if the opposition had the chance, they would use every trick in the book to. Yes there is a lot of corruption, but that would also be the case if the opposition was running the show. History proves this. And to be honest everyone is more or less corrupt. For instance, I do not know anyone who lives abroad and does not use the black market for getting their bolivars, and no one thinks that in doing so they are using money which is meant for ‘el pueblo’. Yes a lot of you are complaining that a lot of people vote for chavez ‘por la plata’. Isn’t voting for Capriles the same thing? Look in that dark place in yourself. Ugly isn’t it? We all vote for whoever we benefit from. And right now, more than half of Venezuela benefits from Chavez and it would take dratic measures to change that.

My pink glasses are on the table now. I now do understand why it went like it went. I now understand that I forgot about history and that my perception was colored. Maybe someday the opposition will actually be able to build the bridge. Maybe some of us need to act more like the family who run Santa Teresa. Do something before saying you will do something. Paid out of your own pocket and actually show that you really care. Give away a powerbook so someone can actually comment on this post..